Bird flu most likely to become human flu pandemic, WHO expert says

Dr Klaus Stohr, an international expert, said the bird flu virus is the most probable cause of the next human flu
pandemic. He believes it could affect one third of the world's population.


Dr. Stohr coordinates the World Health Organization's global influenza program. He was talking at a WHO conference of Asian
health ministers in Bangkok, Thailand.


Dr Stohr says it is not a question of 'whether' there will be another pandemic - it is a question of 'when'. He said "There
are estimates that would put the number of deaths in the range between two and seven million and the number of people
affected will go beyond the billions as 25 to 30 per cent will fall ill. This virus is certainly the most likely one which
will cause the next pandemic. We don't know if the next pandemic will happen in the next week or in the next years. We have
to be ready now."


The earliest a vaccine against the H5N1 bird flu strain may become available will be during the spring of next year. There
are two companies, both from the USA, which are developing a vaccine.


Stohr's concern is that the virus strikes hardest during the winter and early spring months, leaving millions of people in
Asia vulnerable.


Stohr said the most likely place for the virus to spread would be the Asian countries that have been badly affected by
outbreaks of bird (avian) flu - Thailand, Vietnam and possibly China.


The greatest worry is that the H5N1 Bird Flu virus strain may mutate and spread from human-to-human. If the virus managed to
find its way into a pig (and affect it), it could then infect people with a vengeance.